To:       Interested Parties
From:   Ward Baker, NRSC Political Director
Re:       NRSC Arkansas Poll Shows Pryor Extremely Vulnerable
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New polling shows Arkansas Senator Mark Pryor with deep vulnerabilities in 2014.

Senator Pryor of Arkansas should be concerned about rising frustration with Washington in his home state. The mood regarding the direction of the country is very low and trending negative (Arkansas: 22% Right Direction/70% Wrong Track, -48 net difference; National NBC-WSJ 29% Right Direction/61% Wrong Track, -32 net difference), a bad sign for incumbents.

Pryor is already trailing on the ballot over a year before Election Day. Pryor’s 42% is consistent with all other public polling (no recent poll has shown Pryor higher than 45%, regardless of sponsor or pollster), and is a long way shy of the magic 50% mark. At the same time, Cotton’s 44% is surprisingly strong for a first-time statewide candidate who has only represented a quarter of the state, demonstrating both his broad appeal and Pryor’s lack of support.

And, although Pryor’s image is slightly positive, only 15% out of 41% feel “very favorable” toward the Senator (it is a huge red flag for an incumbent to have strong intensity represent less than half of his support).

Adding to the Pryor team’s concerns is a generic ballot that gives an R the edge (38% R-34% D), and a well-known and well-liked opponent in Representative Tom Cotton (32% Favorable-23% Unfavorable). Additionally, Cotton’s image remains positive across age and gender demographics, demonstrating a broad appeal within the Arkansas electorate.

All of that said, the real danger for Pryor has been his support for President Obama’s agenda. When considering Pryor’s support for Obamacare, only one-third of the electorate is more likely to vote for him, while a majority is more likely to support Cotton.  Pryor cannot even garner two-thirds of Democrats (merely 59% more likely to support Pryor) to his side when this aspect of his record is thrown into the mix.

Senator Pryor and his team are sure to try to run away from Washington in next year’s election, but they cannot change his record of supporting President Obama’s liberal agenda that clearly cuts to the core of the Arkansas electorate. With liabilities like these, little core support to sustain the campaign, and a formidable opponent… Pryor’s chances are not looking good in 2014.