Last week, Senator Tom Cotton won the Arkansas primary by more than 70 points and received more than twice as many votes as the Democrat. We wanted to share a story from the Arkansas Reporter on the primary results and a poll showing Cotton with a commanding lead.
Arkansas Democrats nominated Hallie Shoffner—the far-left fraud who donated to AOC, spent years as a climate activist, fought for transgender rights in Peru, and lied about being a lifelong farmer.
As reported by the Arkansas Reporter:
A new poll of Arkansas voters suggests Sen. Tom Cotton is well positioned for reelection this November, with the survey showing the Republican incumbent holding a lead of more than 20 points over Democratic nominee Hallie Shoffner.
The poll points to the broader political fundamentals shaping the race in Arkansas, a state where Democrats have not topped 40 percent in a statewide election since 2010.
A campaign analysis shared exclusively with the Arkansas Reporter reinforces that picture. The memo, written by Brian Colas and Breanne Davis, who lead Cotton’s reelection campaign, argues that both turnout data and political trends show Democrats facing steep structural challenges this cycle.
The memo is included here:
Cotton won the Republican primary with 82 percent of the vote and more than 230,000 votes, carrying all 75 counties and posting margins above 90 percent in several areas. The result amounted to a 72-point victory, and included the most votes for an Arkansas Senate incumbent in a midterm cycle.
Turnout figures also underscore the GOP advantage. According to the campaign memo, more than 282,000 Republicans cast ballots compared with fewer than 130,000 Democrats, a 2.2-to-1 turnout gap. The Arkansas Reporter independently verified those turnout numbers using official results from the Arkansas Secretary of State.
Cotton also holds a large financial advantage, reporting more than $9 million on hand, compared with less than $500,000 for Shoffner.
Taken together, the polling, turnout gap, and financial disparity suggest the Arkansas Senate race is unlikely to become competitive this cycle.
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