A new analysis by Patrick Ruffini shows Senate polling from 2018–2024 overstated Democrats across Iowa, Ohio, and Michigan by an average of 6.2 points 33 days before Election Day, and counted out ultimate GOP winners like Joni Ernst and Bernie Moreno.
“Democrats should think twice before relying too heavily on the same rosy polling that has historically written Republicans off cycle after cycle, only to be proven wrong come Election Day,” said NRSC National Press Secretary Bernadette Breslin.
Just last month, Democratic polling grossly overestimated socialist Abdul El-Sayed by roughly 12 points in Michigan’s Democratic primary.
Meanwhile, CNN’s chief data analyst points out that MAGA Republicans’ appetite to turn out this midterm cycle is polling at near parity with Democrats across a red-leaning Senate map where registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats.
Read more here.