Washington, D.C. –New Wall Street Journal polling confirms what the NRSC Hispanic Battleground Survey showed earlier this year. Hispanic voters largely reject the pillars of the Democrats’ agenda. As the Hispanic share of the electorate has increased over the last three presidential election cycles, the Democrats’ margin of victory among Hispanic voters has decreased.
Hispanic voters are becoming Republican. It’s happening right now, and there is no stopping it. This isn’t something we are hoping for, this is something that is in process.
WSJ: Hispanic Voters Now Evenly Split Between Parties, WSJ Poll Finds
The nation’s large and diverse group of Hispanic voters is showing signs of dividing its support between Democrats and Republicans more evenly than in recent elections, a new Wall Street Journal poll finds, a troubling development for the Democratic Party, which has long counted on outsize Hispanic support.
One year after giving Democratic House candidates more than 60% of their vote, according to polls at the time, the Journal survey found that Hispanic voters are evenly split in their choice for Congress. Asked which party they would back if the election were today, 37% of Hispanic voters said they would support the Republican congressional candidate and 37% said they would favor the Democrat, with 22% undecided.
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Hispanic voters account for about 1 in 8 eligible voters and are one of the fastest-growing groups in the electorate, factors that compound Democratic fears about any deterioration in support.
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Hispanic voters in the survey ranked economic issues as the priority for Mr. Biden and Congress to address. Hispanic men said Republicans had the better economic policy, by a margin of 17 points. Hispanic women, by contrast, said Democrats had better economic plans, by a 10-point margin.
A majority of Hispanic men said they would like to return to the policies that Mr. Trump pursued as president, while a majority of Hispanic women said they would rather stick with Mr. Biden’s policies.
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In its analysis of the 2020 electorate, Equis Labs, which studies the Latino electorate, found swings toward the GOP of 20 points in parts of Florida’s Miami-Dade County; of 12 points in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas; and double-digit swings in parts of the Northeast. In South Florida, the shift was big enough to flip two congressional seats to the GOP, the firm concluded.
Analyses by various groups have cited a range of causes for the shift, including higher turnout among the most conservative Hispanic voters, GOP success in persuading voters who turn out infrequently and frustration over job losses due to pandemic-related business shutdowns.
In last month’s election for governor in Virginia, AP VoteCast found that Republican Glenn Youngkin, who won the race, outpolled his Democratic opponent among Hispanic voters.
In the Journal survey, Hispanic voters had a negative outlook on the economy, with 25% saying it was headed in the right direction and 63% saying it was headed in the wrong direction. That 38-point gap compared with a 31-point gap among all voters.
Hispanic voters saw Republicans in Congress as better able than Democrats to handle some economic issues, such as reining in inflation and cutting the federal deficit. They also saw Republicans as best able to secure the border.
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The results showed Hispanic voters differing little from the overall electorate in their political preferences. Hispanic voters mirrored the overall voter pool, for example, when asked how Mr. Biden was handling his job. Some 42% approved of the president’s job performance and 54% disapproved—in line with the 41% approval and 57% disapproval among the broader voting public.
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