As first reported by Roll Call, a new poll by Public Opinion Strategies finds the West Virginia Senate race in a statistical tie, with Joe Manchin leading by just 1 point, 41-40.
The poll, taken entirely after Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation, shows Republican enthusiasm spiking, with President Trump enjoying a 62% approval rating, and voters preferring a Republican representing them in the Senate 44%-39%. Manchin’s attempts to boost his standing among Republican voters have largely failed, and 50% of voters now have an unfavorable view of the Democrat Senator.
With Election Day approaching, it’s clear the momentum is with Patrick Morrisey and Republicans in West Virginia.
Click HERE to read the polling memo.
In case you missed it…
GOP Poll Puts Morrisey and Manchin Almost Even After Kavanaugh Vote
Roll Call
Simone Pathé
October 10, 2018
https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/gop-poll-morrisey-manchin-almost-tied/
A new Republican poll of the West Virginia Senate race shows a tighter race between Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin III and Attorney General Patrick Morrisey.
Manchin led Morrisey 41 to 40 percent in the survey conducted for the National Republican Senatorial Committee and Morrisey’s campaign and obtained first by Roll Call.
Public Opinion Strategies surveyed 600 likely voters from Oct. 7-9, with 40 percent of interviews over cell phone. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The poll went into the field the day after the Senate voted to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Manchin was the only Democrat to vote for Kavanaugh on Saturday.
As soon as Manchin announced his support for Kavanaugh on Friday, which he did only after Maine GOP Sen. Susan Collins came out for him, Morrisey accused the Democratic Senator of making a “craven political calculation.”
Manchin has faced some criticism from Democrats at home in the days since his vote. But running in a state President Donald Trump carried by 42 points in 2016, Manchin has to win over Trump voters. He told the Associated Press in an interview in Charleston on Sunday that his vote wasn’t a political decision.
Manchin has led in recent public and private polling of the race. In a Tarrance Group survey conducted for the Senate Leadership Fund Sept. 23-25, Manchin led Morrisey 47 to 43 percent. Manchin’s own polling of the race, conducted Sept. 19-23, gave him a 12-point lead.
Manchin is no. 7 on Roll Call’s rankings of the 10 most vulnerable senators, having dropped three spots over the last year. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates his re-election Tilts Democratic.